Sunday, November 6, 2011

“New” Union

For about 20 years of existing of “new” Russia, among all international problems, the most pressing issue is relations among former Soviet countries. Intertwining of destinies of people, who used to live in one state, two hundred nations, who created a unique civilization, continue to excite all classes and segments of population. And this definitely is not only nostalgia. (Timosh)That is why there is no matter how people try to discredit the Soviet past, a sense of grandeur and glory od people of Soviet Union remains. Probably, due to this the desire for unity arises again.

Thus, Yeltsin, within the presidential campaign in 1996, announced the establishment of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and signed decree, according to which the Russian international priority is integration of former Soviet countries. However, none of this was accomplished. The reasons vary, but one thing is clear: political decisions require deep studies, adaptation of a concept, modeling, planning. Unfortunately, most of ideas remain political slogans of the moment. (McDowell)

For example, the Union State: no one actually knows what is this. There are no theory, no precedents in the world (a sort of the union of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but this formation is stimulated and temporary and has no prospects), no project, but a lot of declarations and questions. So, it leave us hope that Putin’s idea of establishment of Eurasian Union will gain real shape and find realization of both in scientific theory and political practice. (Buckley) Because this is a call of time, the obvious answer to the challenges of the modern world.

One of the manifestations of globalization of the society was the creation of geopolitical entities that form the global processes. More often those actors function а states, while states are loosing their subjectivity in politics, economics and social relations. This a new challenge: 45 000 MNC (multinational corporations), over 1000 transnational banks, 16 international financial centers, such institutions like IMF, World Bank and FRS with its own printing press, for dissenters – NATO and intelligent services. All of this made revolution in the economy – money is separated from production, it became not only way of payment, but also a commodity and the meaning of life. In response global and regional associations generated by the cultural and historical similarities – the Greater China, Europe, actively integrating Latin America, next in line – the Islamic world. (McDowell)

Today, three geopolitical centers define mainly global processes, leading a tough fight and at the same time forming a global field of tension. It is North America, Europe and China. They have potential to distinguish them а world leaders: independent economic space with the number of its own consumers over 400 million people, GDP equal not less than 20 trillion dollars, own world currency, armed forces, capable to operate anywhere in the world, in the ocean and space, geopolitical doctrine and the global strategy and its own development strategy. (Putin calls for 'Eurasian Union' of ex-Soviet republics) (Bryanskiy)

Russia belongs to the second echelon of world actors, who recognize its status of world-class power only due to the presence of nuclear potential, combined with the spatial position, natural resources, and the heritage of the succession of geopolitical greatness of the Soviet Union. But today Russia does not create its own potential and there is possibility to end up in the third echelon. That is why present Russian Federation want to change its way of development.

The project of Eurasian Union is highly relevant and may have a lot of perspectives, but there are some problems. First of all, there is fight for resources, control, infrastructure and markets between world’s geopolitical centers – USA, China, Europe. Also there is fight between Islamic centers: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. One more problem – the elite of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are reluctant to share national sovereignty or power, Kyrgyzstan is bounded by the obligations а a WTO member, Tajikistan is not able to enter the common customs and economic space due to distance from Russia and Kazakhstan. (Weitz) In Caucasus, only Armenia showed interest, but it does not have the common boarders with Russia or with other possible members. Ukraine – most of population wish to live in Europe, rather than in Asia, oil and gas – the subject of envy, but there is European Union, which is about to seduce it.

So the real contenders for membership in alliance are Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Anyway, the Eurasian Union is necessary, but without the only focus on economics. It should be nations’ return to national values, connection between cultural and historical traditions with the results of the technological advances, а experience of Chinese. So, economics serve а a means of comprehensive development of people and society in the future Eurasian Union. Traditionally there is no liberal economic models or western values of life. (Weir)

The first success of the Eurasian Union probably will push the rest of the CIS to seek entry into it. However, the potential of the Union, even if the majority of CIS countries will join it, will be insufficient to compete successfully with China, Europe, America or transnational financial monsters. The contours for this alliance are SOC, BRICS, ASEAN and etc. (Cohen) The Eurasian Union should act jointly with Russia а a whole, and also start formation of an independent geopolitical center and economic space.

And finally, one more argument in favor of the Union. The Soviet leaders had such a proposition: “If the opponent is criticizing – it means we are going the right way”. The Putin’s proposal caused a panic and sever critics in the world. Also there were concerns about the revival of the Soviet Union. (Bryanskiy)Of course, those countries during the period of crisis do not care much of Russian well-being, primarily they care about themselves and their interests. Within the Union common foreign policy, the practice of joint defending of economic interests, collective security system will form. It is much easier to deal with every single country individually, that is why CIS should unite.
Works Cited
Bryanskiy, Gleb. "Russia's Putin says wants to build "Eurasian Union"." Reuters 03 10 2011.
Buckley, Neil. " Putin’s Eurasian push challenges west." Financial Times 06 10 2011.
Cohen, David. "China and the Eurasian Union." The Diplomat 07 10 2011.
McDowell, Daragh. "Putin's Eurasian Union deserves a Second Look." World Politics Review 18 09 2011.
"Putin calls for 'Eurasian Union' of ex-Soviet republics." BBC news 04 10 2011.
Telegraph, The Daily. " "Kazakhstan welcomes Putin's Eurasian Union concept"." 06 10 2011.
Timosh, Yuli. "Ukraine, Russia and the Eurasian Union." The Economist 15 10 2011.
Weir, Fred. "Russia: Putin advances Eurasian Union." The Glopal Post 27 10 2011.
Weitz, Richard. "Global Insights: Dim Prospects for Puton's Eurasian Union." World Politics Review 12 10 2011.

6 comments:

  1. Victoria, I found your post very interesting, especially considering the fact that the Soviet Union used to be such a strong and unified political entity. I was wondering if you think this 'new' Soviet Union will work or not. Do you think countries will want to join it, or enjoy their no national freedom? I understand the pro's and con's, but was just wondering what your opinion was about how plausible this all is.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Victoria,
    Do you think that the “New” Union will set the stage for a modern day Cold War situation? Personally, I think that the US would be quite threatened by the formation of this international body, especially if it includes China. Because of the economic recession and the US’s general desire to stay on top of the world economically despite financial downfall would cause the US to react negatively to the reassertion of Soviet power combined with other Asian powerhouses. In my opinion, the Western world would see the institution would be seen as a threat rather than a way to have economic and cultural stability.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Victoria, compare the Soviet Union to Eurasian Union, what advantages do you think Eurasian Union has and do you think the size of it will grow as it goes along? besides that, do you think it will even surpass European Union?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Victoria,
    I really liked this blog post. You mentioned that Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan aren't interested in joining a Eurasian Union because they feel they would be compromising too much of their national sovereignty. Could there be an issue with the size and influence of Russia in the creation of this Union? Are other countries worried about being overpowered by Russian interests?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Julia, first of all, it is definately not a "Soviet", because it is going to have another structure of government. My own opinion, even I would like Russian to stay as an separate country, to be economically developed country we have to do this step toward integration. I was born in a "new" Russia, and for me it was difficult to imagine live with other countries, but then, I noticed that there are some autonomic republics, and it could be better to have common economic space.

    Hannah, I guess it was the first reaction of Western political community. But I do not thing that it will cause the seconf wave of Cold War. As all of countries are in crisis, the main reason for integration is to restore economics.

    Leshi, I think the Eurasian Unionis going to use the experience of the EU, and will take in account the mistakes of the EU, so I hope it will be more succesful than the EU at the moment. Also the size is not that important, it is actually safer to keep it without growing.

    Emma, obviously every country tries to spread their interests. But Russia do not wish to intervenr there and there is no issue, the problem that the world society just in the begining of recognizing them ( I mean the majority of people do not know of their existence) and those country do not wish to loose this. It is just the patriotic idea of new generation, the same that I have ( in my response to Julia).

    ReplyDelete
  6. Here is explanation that it is not the Soviet Union
    http://rt.com/news/eurasian-union-eu-better-667/

    ReplyDelete