Sunday, November 13, 2011
Technology: Paving the Road for Development
Monday, November 7, 2011
2 R2P Or Not 2 R2P?
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Diasporas and Integration
Diaspora and Integration
“Sometimes we feel we straddle two cultures; at other times, that we fall between two stools.” This is what Salman Rushdie said in his book Imaginary Homelands talking about how people can feel attached to two nations at the same time or none at all, and this has happened throughout history. We know of the famous historical Diaspora where the Jews were expelled from the Roman Province of Palestine due to repeated uprisings and the following devastation by the Roman Army. They spread throughout the rest of the Roman Empires establishing communities, which tried to integrate into the local communities with varying successes and failures. We also know of the most recent diaspora in Somalia where due to a drought over 1 million Somalis left the country due to an extreme drought which has affected most of the country causing economic pressures. They have settled in refugee camps in the surrounding countries, trying to integrate within the society or waiting until the unfortunate situation in Somalia has passed over.
In the months from February to August, Somalia has experienced an extensive drought which has led to a high livestock mortality rate, and inflated grain prices. The cereal prices are now 260% higher than they were in 2010. Due to these events, many Somalis are facing starvation, with all of the country being at least under a stressed situation, crisis situations declared in the southern part of the country and a famine situation being declared in Mogadishu and the surrounding areas. UN aid groups, and independent groups attempted to bring aid to the famished groups, yet before this could happen the powerful Islamist Militant group the Shabab prevented the workers from distributing the food to the populace. In turn the UN and the African Union acted sending troops into the area, securing Mogadishu for the TFG or Transitional Federal Government, which is the internationally recognized government in Somalia. Most recently though there has been more direct action by outside powers with Kenya and even more recently Djibouti sending in troops to support the African Union, and the militant groups have responded by launching attacks against African Union troops and even launching incursions into Kenya.
These recent events have further increased the devastation which has enveloped the country since 1991. A side effect of this devastation and also the drought has increased amount of Somalis leaving the country, with 1 million having left the country. While many Somalis have left the country due to the instability, there hasn’t been such a large of an amount as this. Where will this lead though, will the neighboring countries reject the new refugees and treat them like second class citizens, will they try to disperse them or force them to leave, will they react by trying to help the neighboring country so they can move back , or will they let them integrate into society.
No one knows which one they will choose directly, but from this situation we can see one neighboring country, Kenya reacting by trying to stabilize Southern Somalia ( a hint of realism maybe), even facing heavy resistance from the militias. Yet what about integration, is it possible for these Somalis to integrate into Kenyan society, Kenya while being one of the more stable governments in Africa, still can be affected by a vast movements of poor people needing a way to support themselves, can the Kenyan economy stand up to the pressure?
In conclusion we can see that prolonged or even sudden events can provoke a diaspora in a country. Somalia has recently experience that first hand with 1 million Somalis leaving the country due to a devastating drought which has developed most of the country. We can also see how these events can lead to other nations experiencing the brunt of the immigrants and reacting to where they see fit. Yet we can also see if the people want to integrate into the neighboring societies attempted to change their paths. “Sometimes we feel we straddle two cultures; at other times, that we fall between two stools.”
Sources
New York Times: Nytimes.com
CIA World Factbook: CIA World Factbook.com
Good Reads: Good Reads.com
“New” Union
Thus, Yeltsin, within the presidential campaign in 1996, announced the establishment of the Union State of Russia and Belarus and signed decree, according to which the Russian international priority is integration of former Soviet countries. However, none of this was accomplished. The reasons vary, but one thing is clear: political decisions require deep studies, adaptation of a concept, modeling, planning. Unfortunately, most of ideas remain political slogans of the moment. (McDowell)
For example, the Union State: no one actually knows what is this. There are no theory, no precedents in the world (a sort of the union of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but this formation is stimulated and temporary and has no prospects), no project, but a lot of declarations and questions. So, it leave us hope that Putin’s idea of establishment of Eurasian Union will gain real shape and find realization of both in scientific theory and political practice. (Buckley) Because this is a call of time, the obvious answer to the challenges of the modern world.
One of the manifestations of globalization of the society was the creation of geopolitical entities that form the global processes. More often those actors function а states, while states are loosing their subjectivity in politics, economics and social relations. This a new challenge: 45 000 MNC (multinational corporations), over 1000 transnational banks, 16 international financial centers, such institutions like IMF, World Bank and FRS with its own printing press, for dissenters – NATO and intelligent services. All of this made revolution in the economy – money is separated from production, it became not only way of payment, but also a commodity and the meaning of life. In response global and regional associations generated by the cultural and historical similarities – the Greater China, Europe, actively integrating Latin America, next in line – the Islamic world. (McDowell)
Today, three geopolitical centers define mainly global processes, leading a tough fight and at the same time forming a global field of tension. It is North America, Europe and China. They have potential to distinguish them а world leaders: independent economic space with the number of its own consumers over 400 million people, GDP equal not less than 20 trillion dollars, own world currency, armed forces, capable to operate anywhere in the world, in the ocean and space, geopolitical doctrine and the global strategy and its own development strategy. (Putin calls for 'Eurasian Union' of ex-Soviet republics) (Bryanskiy)
Russia belongs to the second echelon of world actors, who recognize its status of world-class power only due to the presence of nuclear potential, combined with the spatial position, natural resources, and the heritage of the succession of geopolitical greatness of the Soviet Union. But today Russia does not create its own potential and there is possibility to end up in the third echelon. That is why present Russian Federation want to change its way of development.
The project of Eurasian Union is highly relevant and may have a lot of perspectives, but there are some problems. First of all, there is fight for resources, control, infrastructure and markets between world’s geopolitical centers – USA, China, Europe. Also there is fight between Islamic centers: Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. One more problem – the elite of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are reluctant to share national sovereignty or power, Kyrgyzstan is bounded by the obligations а a WTO member, Tajikistan is not able to enter the common customs and economic space due to distance from Russia and Kazakhstan. (Weitz) In Caucasus, only Armenia showed interest, but it does not have the common boarders with Russia or with other possible members. Ukraine – most of population wish to live in Europe, rather than in Asia, oil and gas – the subject of envy, but there is European Union, which is about to seduce it.
So the real contenders for membership in alliance are Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Anyway, the Eurasian Union is necessary, but without the only focus on economics. It should be nations’ return to national values, connection between cultural and historical traditions with the results of the technological advances, а experience of Chinese. So, economics serve а a means of comprehensive development of people and society in the future Eurasian Union. Traditionally there is no liberal economic models or western values of life. (Weir)
The first success of the Eurasian Union probably will push the rest of the CIS to seek entry into it. However, the potential of the Union, even if the majority of CIS countries will join it, will be insufficient to compete successfully with China, Europe, America or transnational financial monsters. The contours for this alliance are SOC, BRICS, ASEAN and etc. (Cohen) The Eurasian Union should act jointly with Russia а a whole, and also start formation of an independent geopolitical center and economic space.
And finally, one more argument in favor of the Union. The Soviet leaders had such a proposition: “If the opponent is criticizing – it means we are going the right way”. The Putin’s proposal caused a panic and sever critics in the world. Also there were concerns about the revival of the Soviet Union. (Bryanskiy)Of course, those countries during the period of crisis do not care much of Russian well-being, primarily they care about themselves and their interests. Within the Union common foreign policy, the practice of joint defending of economic interests, collective security system will form. It is much easier to deal with every single country individually, that is why CIS should unite.
Works Cited
Bryanskiy, Gleb. "Russia's Putin says wants to build "Eurasian Union"." Reuters 03 10 2011.
Buckley, Neil. " Putin’s Eurasian push challenges west." Financial Times 06 10 2011.
Cohen, David. "China and the Eurasian Union." The Diplomat 07 10 2011.
McDowell, Daragh. "Putin's Eurasian Union deserves a Second Look." World Politics Review 18 09 2011.
"Putin calls for 'Eurasian Union' of ex-Soviet republics." BBC news 04 10 2011.
Telegraph, The Daily. " "Kazakhstan welcomes Putin's Eurasian Union concept"." 06 10 2011.
Timosh, Yuli. "Ukraine, Russia and the Eurasian Union." The Economist 15 10 2011.
Weir, Fred. "Russia: Putin advances Eurasian Union." The Glopal Post 27 10 2011.
Weitz, Richard. "Global Insights: Dim Prospects for Puton's Eurasian Union." World Politics Review 12 10 2011.
The UAR: A Failed Attempt at Integration
Is a North American Union Possible?
North America. Home to over 528 million people, it is the 4th largest continent in terms of population. Of those, over 80% live in Canada, The United States, and Mexico. These three nations are also the most developed, having the top three highest GDPs on the continent. Obviously, they engage in a lot of economic trade and political cooperation. After the launch of the Euro in 1999, many started to wonder whether or not a similar arrangement would be successful in North America. This of course set off many debates among scholars, politicians, and average people on the street. All of them asking the same question, “Is this possible, and if so, is it a good idea?” Liberal theory suggests that it could work, but Realists and Constructivists would be more pessimistic about a North American Union’s chances of success. But, regardless of its chances, the NAU would most likely be beneficial to all three nations, if it is done correctly.
The United States, Canada, and Mexico already have many institutions and agreements in between them, the most prominent being NAFTA. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) took effect on January 1, 1994 (USDA). Its purpose was to “remove most barriers to trade and investment among the United States, Canada, and Mexico” (USDA). When it was originally signed, most of the provisions outlined did not take effect right away. Some took years to gradually implement, but all of them were finally in effect by January 1, 2008 (TIME). The benefits of NAFTA have been numerous. Andrea Ford points out that “Intra-North American trade has more than tripled since NAFTA's inception, and the value of U.S. agricultural exports worldwide has climbed by 65 percent” (Ford). But, this success does not come without controversy. Many critics say that this agreement undermines the US manufacturing industry, because companies will close down their American branches in favor of cheaper Mexican labor (Ford). This fear, however, turns out to be false. U.S. manufacturing rose 58% between 1993 and 2006, compared to 42% between 1980 and 1993 (USDA). Even in the face of economic success, many are still wary about NAFTA, let alone a North American Union.
This brings us back to the question of whether or not a North American Union would work. Eric Hellener, a Canadian economist, notes some of the major obstacles standing in the way of a NAU. One of the primary concerns of Canadians, and one of the major points of critics, is that the United States would “inevitably dominate such a union because of the asymmetries of power in the region” (Hellener 91). Because of its drastically larger population and GDP, this claim does hold a lot weight. Another concern is that “Canada would be unable to convince the US to follow the European model of creating a new supranational currency and central bank in which the participant countries had an equal voice. Instead, the common currency for North America would become the US dollar, and Canada would have little influence over monetary policy in the region” (Hellener 91). Thus, if there ever was to be a NAU, it would have to come with political equality guarantees, and in order for this to truly be fair, we would have to give up our beloved dollar in favor of an entirely new currency. This is where the constructivists say that a North American Union would never work. They would cite American identity as a major inhibitor of any plan to deeply integrate North America. Another point that backs up constructivists’ arguments is the fact that not only would we have to give up our currency; we would have to integrate our languages also. Many Americans would undoubtedly have issues with this. Today, there is already controversy over schools making special accommodations for students who speak primarily Spanish, let alone proposing the requirement that all official documents be printed in English, Spanish, and French. Realists would point out that the US would also be unwilling to risk its security in favor of a political union with Canada and Mexico. Drug cartels are causing havoc in the northern Mexican states, causing the US to build up forces on the border. Thus reinforcing their point that Americans would feel that it would be too dangerous to integrate with Mexico. Those are only a few of the arguments against a North American Union, and it already seems impossible.
But, looking at this matter through the lens of Liberalism, it would seem that the benefit to all three countries would outweigh the costs. To prove this, we need not look further than the benefits that NAFTA has already provided. Canada and Mexico accounted for 37% of the total growth of U.S. agricultural exports since 1993 (USDA). Mexican wages grew steadily after the 1994 peso crisis, reached pre-crisis levels in 1997; and have increased each year since (USDA). From 1993 to 2007, trade among the NAFTA nations more than tripled, from $297 billion to $930 billion. Business investment in the United States has risen by 117 percent since 1993, compared to a 45 percent increase between 1979 and 1993 (USDA). These facts show just some of the economic benefits of integration, but are definitely not all that there is. If the NAFTA members were to further integrate, our economic and worldwide political power would increase exponentially. We are a resource rich continent. If we were able to integrate our economies, we would be the biggest economic powerhouse on the planet, creating millions of jobs and increasing the average wage for all North Americans. Realist arguments about security are largely baseless. The US already minimally guards its border with Canada, so we are already integrated with Canada in that sense. When it comes to the southern border, it would make the US more secure to be directly involved in Mexican law enforcement. A joint effort to clean up the crime ridden northern regions of Mexico, using American tactics and Mexican personnel, would make both countries more secure. Not to mention, an increased US presence would also pressure reforms within the Mexican government, promoting a crackdown on corruption within law enforcement. Constructivist arguments do not make much sense either. The “American Identity” is changing. Before this century is over, Whites will be a minority (CBSnews). As a nation, we are quickly moving away from a “WASP” mentality, and toward a more “integrated” mindset. Therefore, our “identity” will be in the perfect place by the time a North American Union is even feasible.
There are many arguments for and against a more integrated North America. We saw the beginnings with NAFTA and over the coming years will most likely see more integration on all levels. This integration would be beneficial to all involved. But, in the face of this current economic crisis, a true North American Union will most likely not happen for many years to come.
Works Cited
Ford, Andrea. "A Brief History Of NAFTA - TIME." Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com. Time Magazine, 30 Dec. 2008. Web. 06 Nov. 2011.
Helleiner, Eric. "Canada as a 13th Reserve District? Federalism and the Governance of North American Monetary Union." Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (2004): 91-109. Print.
"North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) —." USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Web. 06 Nov. 2011.
"Whites in U.S. Edge Toward Minority Status - CBS News." Breaking News Headlines: Business, Entertainment & World News - CBS News. CBS News, 10 Mar. 2010. Web. 06 Nov. 2011.